"People need to plan ahead accordingly," Davis said. In the Tampa Bay area, that could mean strong wind gusts, heavy showers and unsafe boating conditions. Southwest Florida will feel the first effects on Wednesday, Davis said, when hurricane-force winds will likely be felt along the east coast, and hurricane warnings are already in effect for the state from Fort Lauderdale and moving northward. WEDNESDA?Y UPDATE: Hurricane warning along portions of Florida's east coast Whether it maintains its strength r downgrades to a Category 3 storm, NWS meteorologist Rick Davis said "both can have devastating effects" to Florida. showed Hurricane Matthew approaching within 30 to 50 miles of the Florida coast on Thursday. The most recent storm track released at 8 p.m. The storm was about 500 miles from Miami and moving at about 9 mph. with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, according to the National Weather Service. In the meantime, it doesn’t hurt to consider the sixth point in Shepherd’s post if you live anywhere along the Florida coast: “Prepare for the worst but if the worst doesn’t happen say thank-you.”Īndrea Thompson contributed reporting for this story.The storm struck the eastern tip of Cuba around 8 p.m. We’ll be updating them regularly as new forecast information becomes available. These maps are one piece of that evolution. Watch the evolving forecast rather than exclusively relying on one you saw days ago.” Intensity forecasts are even more challenging. It is not uncommon for someone to say, ‘But I thought the storm was going to _ because that is what they said 3 days ago.’ Hurricane track forecasts have improved over the past few decades, but there is still significant error. Just because you saw a forecast on Saturday, it doesn’t mean that it has not or will not change. His first point is particularly relevant: Marshall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia, has an instructive post over at Forbes about what you need to know about monitoring Matthew. Research has also shown an increase in the frequency of large storm surge events in the Atlantic hurricane basin since 1923. Warming oceans and melting glaciers have added about 8 inches to sea levels near Jacksonville since the start of the 20th century. It’s distinctly possible more evacuation orders will be issued as the forecast progresses. Voluntary evacuation orders have been issued for Lucie, Flagler and Duval counties and a mandatory evacuation order has been issued for barrier islands in Brevard County. They also serve as a warning that staying in harm’s way is a risky proposition. A shift in Matthew’s track of just 10 miles could be the difference between major impacts and relatively minor ones, not just in terms of storm surge but also rain and wind.īut these images do illustrate the potential Matthew has to push water ashore and wreak havoc. These renderings are not intended to be a forecast of exact impacts. To help illustrate the potential severe impacts, WXshift has created graphics using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration storm surge forecast and Google Earth. To the south of the Space Coast, 4 to 6 feet of storm surge is expected. The worst impacts to the state are likely to come Friday.Įxactly how much storm surge comes ashore in different parts of Florida depends in large part on Matthew’s track, but forecasts indicate that 7 to 11 feet of surge is possible for Cape Canaveral, located about 70 miles south of Daytona Beach, as well as Jacksonville, and all the way up to Edisto Beach in South Carolina. Some additional strengthening is possible before it reaches Florida. Videos and photos emerging on social media show rubble-strewn streets and collapsed buildings in the wake of the storm.Īs of Thursday morning, Matthew was sporting 140 mph winds as it plowed across the Bahamas. The center of Matthew passed just to the east of the city, but the shape of the coast helped funnel powerful storm surge ashore. Matthew’s surge and winds have already caused major damage in coastal areas in the Caribbean.īaracoa, a city of nearly 82,000 on the northeast corner of Cuba, was hit particularly hard by storm surge. The potential risks that storm surge poses are particularly worrisome for parts of Florida as the center of Matthew is likely to approach the coast on Friday morning during high tide. The storm could bring punishing winds, heavy rains and storm surge to Florida as early as Thursday. Hurricane Matthew has a chance to break the decade-long major hurricane drought in the U.S. Editor’s note: This story was updated with the latest forecast information on Thursday afternoon.
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